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What Will 2023 Bring?
No one has complete sight of the future, but perhaps there are some visible trends?
Most large banks and investment houses publish their thoughts on the coming year, and there is a useful link to most of them below:
Each one has a reason for their predictions, and each one has a (normally small) bias built in. Taking a sample can help to minimise that, although one must be aware that they all draw from the same sources in some areas (US Fed and UK Bank of England) so they are not really completely independent forecasts
Want more? the wonderful DanBarker has freely shared a list of anther 95 predictions on Twitter which you can enjoy as much as I did.
The pattern is this: 2023 will be a fundamental reset for most businesses: inflation will fall back a little, growth will be low globally or none in the USA with a probable recession in the UK, interest rates will stay high or rise a little, Central Banks cannot step in any more, manufacturing will need to manage around falling output from China, bonds will be good, equities have probably taken the worst hits (but cannot escape the effect of rising interest rates on yields), India looks like a good place (as do some other Asian economies outside China), oil and gas will sort themselves out, friend-shoring and near-shoring will accelerate.
Strong areas expected to be: digitisation of real estate, logistics, fintech, bigdata, AI, biotech, green energy, entertainment, health, metals, luxury goods.
Weaker areas: fossil fuels, traditional real estate, retail, gambling, telecoms, low end consumer products, foods.
All expect things to be turning a little better for the 2023/2024 period.
If you want advice on how to cope or navigate the changes, you know who to call.
Happy 2023 and GOOD LUCK!