DJWB & CO Insights

Share this post

What Will 2023 Bring?

djwbandco.substack.com

What Will 2023 Bring?

No one has complete sight of the future, but perhaps there are some visible trends?

David J W Bailey
Dec 31, 2022
1
Share
Share this post

What Will 2023 Bring?

djwbandco.substack.com

Most large banks and investment houses publish their thoughts on the coming year, and there is a useful link to most of them below:

Bank of England

Goldman Sachs

J.P. Morgan

Morgan Stanley

Bank of America

BlackRock

HSBC

Barclays

NatWest

Citi

UBS

Credit Suisse

BNP Paribas

Deutsche Bank

ING

Apollo Global Management, Inc.

Wells Fargo

BNY Mellon

Fidelity International

Lazard

Each one has a reason for their predictions, and each one has a (normally small) bias built in. Taking a sample can help to minimise that, although one must be aware that they all draw from the same sources in some areas (US Fed and UK Bank of England) so they are not really completely independent forecasts

Want more? the wonderful DanBarker has freely shared a list of anther 95 predictions on Twitter which you can enjoy as much as I did.

The pattern is this: 2023 will be a fundamental reset for most businesses: inflation will fall back a little, growth will be low globally or none in the USA with a probable recession in the UK, interest rates will stay high or rise a little, Central Banks cannot step in any more, manufacturing will need to manage around falling output from China, bonds will be good, equities have probably taken the worst hits (but cannot escape the effect of rising interest rates on yields), India looks like a good place (as do some other Asian economies outside China), oil and gas will sort themselves out, friend-shoring and near-shoring will accelerate.

Strong areas expected to be: digitisation of real estate, logistics, fintech, bigdata, AI, biotech, green energy, entertainment, health, metals, luxury goods.

Weaker areas: fossil fuels, traditional real estate, retail, gambling, telecoms, low end consumer products, foods.

All expect things to be turning a little better for the 2023/2024 period.

If you want advice on how to cope or navigate the changes, you know who to call.

Happy 2023 and GOOD LUCK!

1
Share
Share this post

What Will 2023 Bring?

djwbandco.substack.com
Comments
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 David J W Bailey
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing